Decision Making for managers is the identification of alternative solutions to problems, challenges, and opportunities; the analysis of those alternatives; and the selection of the alternative most likely to achieve the desired outcome with the best effect on the organization.
Decision Making Skills Course
Effective Management Decision Making: Introduction
- The Duality of Decision Making?
- Types of Business and Management Decisions.
- Who is involved in Decision Making?- The Decision Body.
- The three phased model.
- Simple Averaging Forecasting.
- Moving Averages.
- Exponential Smoothing Data Forecasting.
- Errors, accuracy and confidence.
- Causal forecasting.
- Non-linear Forecasting and multiple regression– Curve fitting.
- Multiple regression and partial regression analysis.
- Complete worked non linear forecasting example with seasonality.
Developing rational models with quantitative methods and analysis: probabilities
- The Decision tree – a map of the solution set.
- Decision Analysis.
- More on probabilities: Expected Monetary Values.
- Revising problem information – Bayes Theorem.
- The Value of Sample and Perfect Information.
Developing rational models with quantitative methods and analysis: Distribution Functions and Queuing Theory
- The mathematical function: discrete and continuous variables.
- The discrete distribution – the binomial function.
- Extending binomial number sequences.
The Poisson sequence
Examples of Poisson problems
Queuing Theory – Modelling reality
Defining the queuing characteristics
The economic analysis of queues
Other queuing systems and different waiting line structures
Example of an arbitrary service time queue
Developing holistic models with qualitative methods of decision analysis: Irrationality in Management Decision Making
The Monte Carlo Simulation
Systems thinking about decisions
Checkland’s Soft System Methodology
The individual in decision making: Heuristics in Management Decision Making
More on the cognitive view – schematas and heuristics
More on heuristics
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