• Effective Management Decision Making: Introduction
  - The Duality of Decision Making? 
  - Types of Business and Management Decisions.
  - Who is involved in Decision Making?- The Decision Body.
  - The three phased model.

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• Data forecasting
  - Simple Averaging Forecasting. 
  - Moving Averages. 
  - Exponential Smoothing Data Forecasting. 
  - Errors, accuracy and confidence.
  - Causal forecasting.
  - Non-linear Forecasting and multiple regression– Curve fitting.
  - Multiple regression and partial regression analysis.
  - Complete worked non linear forecasting example with seasonality.

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• Developing rational models with quantitative methods and analysis: probabilities
  - The Decision tree – a map of the solution set.
  - Decision Analysis.
  - More on probabilities: Expected Monetary Values.
  - Revising problem information – Bayes Theorem. 
  - The Value of Sample and Perfect Information. 

 

• Developing rational models with quantitative methods and analysis: Distribution Functions and Queuing Theory

- The mathematical function: discrete and continuous variables.

- The discrete distribution – the binomial function.

- Extending binomial number sequences.

The Poisson sequence 

• Queuing Theory 

• Examples of Poisson problems 

• Queuing Theory – Modelling reality 

• Defining the queuing characteristics 

• The economic analysis of queues 

• Other queuing systems and different waiting line structures

• Example of an arbitrary service time queue 

Developing holistic models with qualitative methods of decision analysis: Irrationality in Management Decision Making

• The Monte Carlo Simulation

• Systems thinking about decisions

• Checkland’s Soft System Methodology

The individual in decision making: Heuristics in Management Decision Making

• More on the cognitive view – schematas and heuristics 

• More on heuristics